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Hi Chris & All. Aug 13, 2012
Just a few comments about your interesting article.
One should avoid wording (e.g. last line of Standard Deviation) that =
implies departures from normal curve frequency distribution expectations =
to be indicative of an abnormal condition. (I suspect the 'normal' of =
normal (Gaussian) distributions has something to do with being ar right =
angles to some frequency distribution surface; whatever that might mean. =
I have forgotten most statistics and kinetics but that is one aspect =
that I didn't have to forget.)
In Temperature Anomaly line 1 delete "at" in "...examine at what.." =
and in the penultimate paragraph--- global means are more than five =
times--- is a vagrant concept. The five times being just an artifact of =
the location of zero on the arbitrary Celsius scale. Convert the =
temperatures to the Absolute scale to see the difference a scale makes.
The figures in the Standard Deviation Anomaly section were I assume =
generated by plotting temperatures for the period in question as =
deviations from mean temperatures of the reference period (1951-1980) =
and expressed in Sd units also of the reference period; because I see no =
other way to obtain such figures. It might help to spell this out.
Yt, Dave Webster, Kentville
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Christopher Majka=20
To: naturens@chebucto.ns.ca=20
Sent: Saturday, August 11, 2012 10:26 PM
Subject: [NatureNS] Loaded dice in the climate change casino
In June of this year over 4,000 daily high temperature records were =
broken in the United States. There were 159 record high temperatures for =
the month, and 42 all-time temperature highs. July has been even worse, =
the hottest month ever recorded in the United States since comprehensive =
weather recording began in 1895. July 2012 was the 328th consecutive =
month that global temperature exceeded the 20th century average. In =
Canada record-setting temperatures were recorded in July in many parts =
of the country. Is there a way we can determine if the extreme weather =
events we have been witnessing are indicative of a changing climate, or =
are we simply witnessing variable weather?
That's precisely what NASA's James Hansen and his colleagues have done =
in a strikingly elegant publication entitled Perception of climate =
change. Anyone who was alive and paying attention before 1981 can =
perceive the difference in climate that has occurred, and the analysis =
of large datasets of environmental information clearly and unequivocally =
confirm this change. To read more see my recent article for Rabble:
Loaded dice in the climate change casino
=
http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/christophermajka/2012/08/loaded-dice-clim=
ate-change-casino
Best wishes,
Christopher Majka
Christopher Majka - columnist, Rabble.ca
Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
Email: c.majka@ns.sympatico.ca
http://rabble.ca/blog/26142
"The significant problems of our time cannot be solved by the same =
level of thinking that created them." - Albert Einstein
No virus found in this message.
Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
Version: 2012.0.2197 / Virus Database: 2437/5185 - Release Date: =
08/07/12
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<META name=3DGENERATOR content=3D"MSHTML 8.00.6001.19258">
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bgColor=3D#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Hi Chris &=20
All. &nb=
sp; =20
Aug 13, 2012</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2> Just a few comments about your =
interesting=20
article.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2> One should avoid wording (e.g. =
last line of=20
Standard Deviation) that implies departures from normal =
curve frequency=20
distribution expectations to be indicative of an abnormal =
condition. (I=20
suspect the 'normal' of normal (Gaussian) distributions has something to =
do with=20
being ar right angles to some frequency distribution surface; =
whatever that=20
might mean. I have forgotten most statistics and kinetics but that is =
one aspect=20
that I didn't have to forget.)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2> In Temperature Anomaly line 1 =
delete "at"=20
in "...examine at what.." and in the penultimate paragraph--- global =
means are=20
more than five times--- is a vagrant concept. The five times being =
just an=20
artifact of the location of zero on the arbitrary Celsius scale. =
Convert=20
the temperatures to the Absolute scale to see the difference a scale=20
makes.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2> The figures in the =
Standard=20
Deviation Anomaly section were I assume generated by plotting =
temperatures=20
for the period in question as deviations from mean temperatures of the =
reference=20
period (1951-1980) and expressed in Sd units also of the reference =
period;=20
because I see no other way to obtain such figures. It might help to =
spell this=20
out.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3D2>Yt, Dave Webster, Kentville</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; =
PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"=20
dir=3Dltr>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial; BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dc.majka@ns.sympatico.ca=20
href=3D"mailto:c.majka@ns.sympatico.ca">Christopher Majka</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dnaturens@chebucto.ns.ca=20
href=3D"mailto:naturens@chebucto.ns.ca">naturens@chebucto.ns.ca</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, August 11, 2012 =
10:26=20
PM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [NatureNS] Loaded dice =
in the=20
climate change casino</DIV>
<DIV><F