[NatureNS] Winter Finch Forecast from Ron Pittaway

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From: Don MacNeill <donmacneill@bellaliant.net>
Date: Sat, 22 Sep 2018 15:42:43 -0300
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Here is some information relating to cone crops and expected 
irruptions.  I am not sure what the cone crop situation is in Nova 
Scotia, but I would suggest setting up your feeders again if you have 
taken them down.



  Winter Finch Forecast 2018-2019

*GENERAL FORECAST:*This is an irruption (flight) year for winter finches 
in the East. Cone and birch seed crops are poor to low in most of 
Ontario and the Northeast, with a few exceptions such as Newfoundland 
which has an excellent spruce crop. It will be a quiet winter in the 
North Woods. Expect flights of winter finches into southern Ontario, 
southern Quebec, Maritime Provinces, New York and New England States, 
with some finches going farther south into the United States.Stock your 
bird feeders because many birds will have a difficult time finding 
natural foods this winter. This forecast applies primarily to Ontario 
and adjacent provinces and states.Spruce, birch and mountain-ash crops 
are much better in Western Canada. For the details on each finch 
species, see individual forecasts below.

*PINE GROSBEAK: * This magnificent grosbeak will move south in moderate 
numbers into southern Ontario and the northern states. The Mountain-ash 
berry crop in the boreal forest of Ontario and Quebec is below average 
and conifer seeds are in short supply. The feeders at the Visitor Centre 
in Algonquin Park should have Pine Grosbeaks this winter. At feeders 
they prefer black oil sunflower seeds. Also watch for them on European 
Mountain-ashes and crabapple trees.

*PURPLE FINCH:* Purple Finches are now moving south out of Ontario. Most 
Purples will have departed the province by December because seed crops 
are poor on northern conifers and hardwoods. A few may linger at feeders 
in southern Ontario where they prefer black oil sunflower seeds.

*RED CROSSBILL:* Red Crossbills will be scarce this winter. Watch for 
them in pines. Red Crossbills comprise about 10 "call types" in North 
America. The western types seen last winter in the East have probably 
returned to their core ranges in western North America. Most types are 
impossible to identify without analyzing recordings of their flight 
calls. Recordings can be made with an iPhone and identified to 
type. Matt Young (may6 at cornell.edu <http://cornell.edu>) of the 
Cornell Lab of Ornithology will identify types if you email him your 
recordingsor upload them to an eBird checklist.This helps his research. 
Recordings uploaded to eBird checklists are deposited in the Macaulay 
Library. See link #4 for Matt’s guide to Red Crossbill call types.

*WHITE-WINGED CROSSBILL:* Most White-winged Crossbills have moved east 
to Newfoundland and west to Western Canada where spruce cone crops are 
much larger. Some should wander south this winter into southern Ontario 
and the northern states because of poor cone crops in the eastern boreal 
forest. Watch for them on non-native spruces and European Larch.

*COMMON REDPOLL:* This will be a flight year for redpolls. Birch, alder 
and conifer seed crops are generally poor to low in most of the 
Northeast so redpolls will come south into southern Ontario and the 
northern states. The first arriving redpolls this fall likely will be 
seen in weedy fields. When redpolls discover nyger seed feeders, feeding 
frenzies will result. Fidgety redpolls are best studied at feeders. Look 
for the larger and darker far northern “Greater” Common Redpoll 
(subspecies /rostrata/) from Baffin Island (NU) and Greenland. For 
subspecies ID see link #2 below.

*HOARY REDPOLL:*This will be the winter to see Hoaries in flocks of 
Common Redpolls. The “Southern” Hoary Redpoll (subspecies /exilipes/) 
breeds south to northern Ontario and is the subspecies usually seen in 
southern Canada and northern USA. Watch for the far northern 
“Hornemann’s” Hoary Redpoll (nominate /hornemanni/) from high arctic 
Nunavut and Greenland. It is the largest and palest of the redpolls. 
Hornemann’s was formerly considered a great rarity south of the tundra, 
but recently it has been documented more frequently in the south with 
better photos. For subspecies ID see link #2 below.

*PINE SISKIN:*Siskins are currently moving south because cone crops in 
the Northeast are generally poor on spruce, fir and hemlock. Many 
siskins also have probably gone to better spruce crops in Western 
Canada. Siskins relish nyger seeds in silo feeders. Link #3 below 
discusses siskin irruptions related to climate variability.

*EVENING GROSBEAK:* Expect a moderate flight south into southern Ontario 
and the northern states because both conifer and deciduous seed crops 
are generally low in the Northeast. The best spot to see this striking 
grosbeak is the feeders at the Visitor Centre in Algonquin Park. At 
feeders it prefers black oil sunflower seeds. In April 2016 the 
Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) 
listed the Evening Grosbeak a species of /Special Concern /due to strong 
population declines occurring mainly in central and eastern Canada.

*THREE IRRUPTIVE NON-FINCH PASSERINES:*Movements of the following three 
passerines are linked to irruptions of boreal finches.

*BLUE JAY:* A very large flight of jays is underway along the north 
shorelines of Lakes Ontario and Erie. The acorn, beechnut, hazelnut 
crops were generally poor to low in central Ontario and Quebec.

*RED-BREASTED NUTHATCH:* This nuthatch is irrupting south because 
conifer seed crops are poor to low in most of the eastern boreal forest. 
Red-breasted Nuthatches also have moved east to Newfoundland where 
spruce crops are excellent. A report on eBird at Point Pelee National 
Park on 25 July 2018 was an early indication of a movement.

*BOHEMIAN WAXWING: *A good flight south into settled areas is expected 
because native Mountain-ashes in Ontario and Quebec’s boreal forest have 
a below average berry crop. Flocks will likely wander farther south and 
east than usual. Watch for them feeding on European Mountain‐ash 
berries, small ornamental crabapples and Buckthorn berries. Swirling 
flocks of Bohemian Waxwings resemble starlings and make a continuous 
buzzy ringing twittering.

*WHERE TO SEE FINCHES: *Ontario’s Algonquin Provincial Park is an 
exciting winter experience. It is about a 3.5 hour drive north of 
Toronto. Cone crops are poor in the park so crossbills, siskins and 
Purple Finches will be mostly absent this winter. The feeders at the 
Visitor Centre (km 43) should attract Common and Hoary Redpolls, Evening 
and Pine Grosbeaks. The feeders are easily observed from the viewing 
deck. The Visitor Centre and restaurant are open weekends in winter. On 
weekdays there are limited services, but snacks and drinks are 
available. The bookstore has a large selection of natural history books. 
Be sure to get the /Birds of Algonquin Park/ (2012) by former park 
naturalist Ron Tozer. It is one of the finest regional bird books. The 
nearby Spruce Bog Trail at km 42.5 and Opeongo Road at km 44.5 are the 
best spots for boreal species such as finches, Canada Jay, Boreal 
Chickadee, Spruce Grouse and Black-backed Woodpecker.

-- 
Don MacNeill donmacneill@bellaliant.net

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    <tt>Here is some information relating to cone crops and expected
      irruptions.  I am not sure what the cone crop situation is in Nova
      Scotia, but I would suggest setting up your feeders again if you
      have taken them down.</tt><br>
    <h1 class="title" style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.95552em;
      line-height: 1.2141em; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0.5em;
      text-align: start; -webkit-hyphens: manual; display: block;
      max-width: 100%;"><br>
    </h1>
    <h1 class="title" style="font-weight: bold; font-size: 1.95552em;
      line-height: 1.2141em; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0.5em;
      text-align: start; -webkit-hyphens: manual; display: block;
      max-width: 100%;">Winter Finch Forecast 2018-2019</h1>
    <div class="leading-image" style="max-width: 100%; margin-bottom:
      1.15em; line-height: 1.5em; font-family: -apple-system-font;
      font-size: 0.75rem; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.8);"><img
        src="http://jeaniron.ca/2018/evgrwff9522.jpg" class=""
        style="max-width: 100%; height: auto; margin: auto; display:
        block; clear: both;"></div>
    <p style="max-width: 100%;"> <font style="max-width: 100%;"><b
          style="max-width: 100%;"> <span style="max-width: 100%;"
            lang="EN-US"> GENERAL FORECAST:</span></b></font><span
        style="max-width: 100%;" lang="EN-US"> This is an irruption
        (flight) year for winter finches in the East. Cone and birch
        seed crops are poor to low in most of Ontario and the Northeast,
        with a few exceptions such as Newfoundland which has an
        excellent spruce crop. It will be a quiet winter in the North
        Woods. Expect flights of winter finches into southern Ontario,
        southern Quebec, Maritime Provinces, New York and New England
        States, with some finches going farther south into the United
        States.<span style="max-width: 100%;"> Stock your bird feeders
          because </span>many birds will have a difficult time finding
        natural foods this winter. This forecast applies primarily to
        Ontario and adjacent provinces and states.</span><span
        style="max-width: 100%;" lang="EN-US"> Spruce, birch and
        mountain-ash crops are much better in Western Canada. For the
        details on each finch species, see individual forecasts below.</span></p>
    <p style="max-width: 100%;"> <font style="max-width: 100%;"><b
          style="max-width: 100%;"> <span style="max-width: 100%;"
            lang="EN-US"> PINE GROSBEAK: </span></b></font> <span
        style="max-width: 100%;" lang="EN-US"> This magnificent grosbeak
        will move south in moderate numbers into southern Ontario and
        the northern states. The Mountain-ash berry crop in the boreal
        forest of Ontario and Quebec is below average and conifer seeds
        are in short supply. The feeders at the Visitor Centre in
        Algonquin Park should have Pine Grosbeaks this winter. At
        feeders they prefer black oil sunflower seeds. Also watch for
        them on European Mountain-ashes and crabapple trees.</span></p>
    <p style="max-width: 100%;"> <span style="max-width: 100%;"
        lang="EN-US"> <font style="max-width: 100%;"><b
            style="max-width: 100%;">PURPLE FINCH:</b></font> Purple
        Finches are now moving south out of Ontario. Most Purples will
        have departed the province by December because seed crops are
        poor on northern conifers and hardwoods. A few may linger at
        feeders in southern Ontario where they prefer black oil
        sunflower seeds.</span></p>
    <p style="max-width: 100%;"> <span style="max-width: 100%;"
        lang="EN-US"> <font style="max-width: 100%;"><b
            style="max-width: 100%;">RED CROSSBILL:</b></font> Red
        Crossbills will be scarce this winter. Watch for them in pines.
        Red Crossbills comprise about 10 "call types" in North America.
        The western types seen last winter in the East have probably
        returned to their core ranges in western North America. Most
        types are impossible to identify without analyzing recordings of
        their flight calls. Recordings can be made with an iPhone and
        identified to type<span style="max-width: 100%;">.</span> Matt
        Young (may6 at cornell.edu) of
        the Cornell Lab of Ornithology will identify types if you email
        him your recordings</span><span style="max-width: 100%;"
        lang="EN-US"> or upload them to an eBird checklist.</span><span
        style="max-width: 100%;" lang="EN-US"> This helps his research.
        Recordings uploaded to eBird checklists are deposited in the
        Macaulay Library. See link #4 for Matt’s guide to Red Crossbill
        call types.</span></p>
    <p style="max-width: 100%;"> <span style="max-width: 100%;"
        lang="EN-US"> <font style="max-width: 100%;"><b
            style="max-width: 100%;">WHITE-WINGED CROSSBILL:</b> </font>Most
        White-winged Crossbills have moved east to Newfoundland and west
        to Western Canada where spruce cone crops are much larger. Some
        should wander south this winter into southern Ontario and the
        northern states because of poor cone crops in the eastern boreal
        forest. Watch for them on non-native spruces and European Larch.</span></p>
    <p style="max-width: 100%;"> <span style="max-width: 100%;"
        lang="EN-US"> <font style="max-width: 100%;"><b
            style="max-width: 100%;">COMMON REDPOLL:</b></font> This
        will be a flight year for redpolls. Birch, alder and conifer
        seed crops are generally poor to low in most of the Northeast so
        redpolls will come south into southern Ontario and the northern
        states. The first arriving redpolls this fall likely will be
        seen in </span> <span style="max-width: 100%;" lang="EN">weedy
        fields. When redpolls discover nyger seed feeders, feeding
        frenzies will result. </span> <span style="max-width: 100%;"
        lang="EN-US"> Fidgety redpolls are best studied at feeders. Look
        for the larger and darker far northern </span> <span
        style="max-width: 100%;" lang="EN"> “Greater” Common Redpoll
        (subspecies <i style="max-width: 100%;">rostrata</i>) from
        Baffin Island (NU) and Greenland. For subspecies ID see link #2
        below.</span></p>
    <p style="max-width: 100%;"> <font style="max-width: 100%;"><b
          style="max-width: 100%;"> <span style="max-width: 100%;"
            lang="EN-US"> HOARY REDPOLL:</span></b><span
          style="max-width: 100%;" lang="EN-US"> </span></font> <span
        style="max-width: 100%;" lang="EN">This will be the winter to
        see Hoaries in flocks of Common Redpolls. The “Southern” Hoary
        Redpoll (subspecies <i style="max-width: 100%;">exilipes</i>)
        breeds south to northern Ontario and is the subspecies usually
        seen in southern Canada and northern USA. Watch for the far
        northern “Hornemann’s” Hoary Redpoll (nominate <i
          style="max-width: 100%;">hornemanni</i>) from high arctic
        Nunavut and Greenland. It is the largest and palest of the
        redpolls. Hornemann’s was formerly considered a great rarity
        south of the tundra, but recently it has been documented more
        frequently in the south with better photos. For subspecies ID
        see link #2 below.</span></p>
    <p style="max-width: 100%;"> <font style="max-width: 100%;"><b
          style="max-width: 100%;"> <span style="max-width: 100%;"
            lang="EN-US"> PINE SISKIN:</span></b></font><span
        style="max-width: 100%;" lang="EN-US"> Siskins are currently
        moving south because cone crops in the Northeast are generally
        poor on spruce, fir and hemlock. Many siskins also have probably
        gone to better spruce crops in Western Canada. Siskins relish
        nyger seeds in silo feeders. Link #3 below discusses siskin
        irruptions related to climate variability.</span></p>
    <p style="max-width: 100%;"> <span style="max-width: 100%;"
        lang="EN-US"> <font style="max-width: 100%;"><b
            style="max-width: 100%;">EVENING GROSBEAK:</b></font> Expect
        a moderate flight south into southern Ontario and the northern
        states because both conifer and deciduous seed crops are
        generally low in the Northeast. </span> <span
        style="max-width: 100%;" lang="EN-US"> The best spot to see this
        striking grosbeak is the feeders at the Visitor Centre in
        Algonquin Park. At feeders it prefers black oil sunflower seeds.
        In April 2016 </span> <span style="max-width: 100%;"
        lang="EN-US">the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife
        in Canada (COSEWIC) listed the Evening Grosbeak a species of <i
          style="max-width: 100%;">Special Concern </i>due to strong
        population declines occurring mainly in central and eastern
        Canada.</span></p>
    <p style="max-width: 100%;"> <span style="max-width: 100%;"
        lang="EN-US"><b style="max-width: 100%;"> <font
            style="max-width: 100%;">THREE IRRUPTIVE NON-FINCH
            PASSERINES:</font></b><font style="max-width: 100%;"> </font>Movements
        of the following three passerines are linked to irruptions of
        boreal finches.</span></p>
    <p style="max-width: 100%;"> <span style="max-width: 100%;"
        lang="EN-US"> <font style="max-width: 100%;"><b
            style="max-width: 100%;">BLUE JAY:</b></font> A very large
        flight of jays is underway along the north shorelines of Lakes
        Ontario and Erie. The acorn, beechnut, hazelnut crops were
        generally poor to low in central Ontario and Quebec.</span></p>
    <p style="max-width: 100%;"> <span style="max-width: 100%;"
        lang="EN-US"> <font style="max-width: 100%;"><b
            style="max-width: 100%;">RED-BREASTED NUTHATCH:</b></font>
        This nuthatch is irrupting south because conifer seed crops are
        poor to low in most of the eastern boreal forest. Red-breasted
        Nuthatches also have moved east to Newfoundland where spruce
        crops are excellent. A report on eBird at Point Pelee National
        Park on 25 July 2018 was an early indication of a movement.</span></p>
    <p style="max-width: 100%;"> <span style="max-width: 100%;"
        lang="EN-US"> <font style="max-width: 100%;"><b
            style="max-width: 100%;">BOHEMIAN WAXWING: </b></font>A
        good flight south into settled areas is expected because native
        Mountain-ashes in Ontario and Quebec’s boreal forest have a
        below average berry crop. Flocks will likely wander farther
        south and east than usual. Watch for them feeding on European
        Mountain‐ash berries, small ornamental crabapples and Buckthorn
        berries. Swirling flocks of Bohemian Waxwings resemble starlings
        and make a continuous buzzy ringing twittering.</span></p>
    <p style="max-width: 100%;"> <span style="max-width: 100%;"
        lang="EN-US"> <font style="max-width: 100%;"><b
            style="max-width: 100%;">WHERE TO SEE FINCHES: </b></font>Ontario’s
        Algonquin Provincial Park is an exciting winter experience. It
        is about a 3.5 hour drive north of Toronto. Cone crops are poor
        in the park so crossbills, siskins and Purple Finches will be
        mostly absent this winter. The feeders at the Visitor Centre (km
        43) should attract Common and Hoary Redpolls, Evening and Pine
        Grosbeaks. The feeders are easily observed from the viewing
        deck. The Visitor Centre and restaurant are open weekends in
        winter. On weekdays there are limited services, but snacks and
        drinks are available. The bookstore has a large selection of
        natural history books. Be sure to get the <i style="max-width:
          100%;">Birds of Algonquin Park</i> (2012) by former park
        naturalist Ron Tozer. It is one of the finest regional bird
        books. The nearby Spruce Bog Trail at km 42.5 and Opeongo Road
        at km 44.5 are the best spots for boreal species such as
        finches, Canada Jay, Boreal Chickadee, Spruce Grouse and
        Black-backed Woodpecker.</span></p>
    <div class="moz-signature">-- <br>
      Don MacNeill
      donmacneill@bellaliant.net</div>
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