[NatureNS] Covid lock down redux

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To: <naturens@chebucto.ns.ca>
Date: Fri, 1 May 2020 10:57:00 -0300
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This might be interesting to you statisticians: =
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-death-projections-compare=
-causes-of-death/?utm_source=3DSTAT+Newsletters =
<https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-death-projections-compar=
e-causes-of-death/?utm_source=3DSTAT+Newsletters&utm_campaign=3D64eff25ec=
7-Daily_Recap&utm_medium=3Demail&utm_term=3D0_8cab1d7961-64eff25ec7-15048=
6637> =
&utm_campaign=3D64eff25ec7-Daily_Recap&utm_medium=3Demail&utm_term=3D0_8c=
ab1d7961-64eff25ec7-150486637

=20

From: naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca On Behalf Of Stephen Shaw
Sent: April 30, 2020 8:48 PM
To: naturens@chebucto.ns.ca
Subject: Re: [NatureNS] Covid lock down

=20

Hi Nancy,=20

Strange?=E2=80=94 no.  You must have missed Rick Whitman=E2=80=99s reply =
to David, and David=E2=80=99s response acknowledging that Rick was =
correct in pinpointing the fatal flaw in the banned video talk.  The =
=E2=80=9Canalysis=E2=80=9D the guy in the video gives is nonsense, but =
he sounds slick enough -- he presumably is deliberately intending to =
mislead the audience, us: that is, he has a hidden agenda to push.  The =
argument the guy gives may sound convincing but it is not, so perhaps =
numbers may help.

=20

Say that epidemiologists round up 100 people whom they have good reason =
think probably have (or have had) covid-19, test them and find that 99 =
actually do have covid.  On video logic, they'd want to say, =
extrapolating, that 99 percent of the larger population must have been =
infected, a huge number, 39 million folk in California. If a relatively =
low number of people in CA have died (~1200 they said) it sounds as if a =
only tiny fraction of those infected have died, so the death rate must =
be extremely low =E2=80=94 heck, it=E2=80=99s no worse than flu.  This =
is a totally biased, bogus and wrong conclusion because it=E2=80=99s not =
based on random sampling.   It doesn=E2=80=99t matter if they calculate =
a 12% rate not 99%, it is just as phoney an analysis and wrong.

=20

If the surveyors instead round up 10,000 people randomly from the =
population (with no prior knowledge of whether they are or are not =
infected), test this larger number and find that the same 99 people are =
infected, they will estimate correctly that only about 1 percent of the =
larger population is actually infected, now very small proportion (99 =
out of 10,000 =3D 0.99% =E2=89=88 1%).   Since this number is way lower =
than the bogus video estimate while the number of dead stays the same, =
1200, the actual death rate must be much higher than the bogus video =
estimates claim.

=20

To know the true current infection rate would be really useful, but =
needs random sampling and is not going to happen widely in present =
circumstances, if at all.   As you saw from the local front-line =
doctor=E2=80=99s touching e-mail here recently, she and colleagues are =
working flat out already, and it is also clear from TV reports that =
medics are pushed to find test and PPE materials both here and in USA.  =
If you perform random tests on 10,000 people and find that most are not =
infected, those tests are not useful in the sense that they do not help =
diagnose those patients who actually are infected, and are actually =
harmful in taking time, money and supplies away from already overworked =
heath care personal.  Not going to happen in the current situation.=20

=20

It would be useful, though, to have non-bogus estimates to see what the =
current infection rate really is, to gauge whether countries are heading =
upwards towards 80% of the population infected as suggested by earlier =
UK modeling, should no lock-down precautions be taken.  Or are we now =
heading to an 80% overall infection anyway with a flattened curve, just =
much more slowly and integrated over a much longer time scale? =20

=20

-------------------------------------------------------   =20

On Apr 30, 2020, at 4:56 PM, N Robinson <nrobbyn@gmail.com =
<mailto:nrobbyn@gmail.com> > wrote:

Thank you, David, for finding this video that was banned by YouTube - =
very strange...

=20

I find these doctors very responsible, finally someone putting the gross =
numbers into perspective; i.e. looking at per capita rates and death =
rates compared to other illnesses.  I have not heard any news reports =
since the beginning of this pandemic telling us how many people die =
every day of many causes.  It is as if without Covid 19, nobody dies.  =
The doctors' extrapolations to the wider population should be examined =
more closely.  I notice, however, that they mentioned increased domestic =
violence, etc. as a side effect of the shutdown, but gave no numbers.  =
Nor did the reporters ask how many, within what time frame and how many =
more than "usual".  =20

=20

My take on the pandemic has been that Mother Earth said "Enough is =
enough" and found a way to shut the whole world down.  Brilliant!

=20

I do hope that this pause in our lives will actually raise awareness of =
the wasteful way we live, increase our sensitivity to the natural world =
and force us to deal with our contribution to climate change.  These =
doctors do not address that.  They mention vaccines as a solution, at =
least in part, but do not mention anything about people improving their =
lifestyles, especially their diets, which would go a long way to =
mitigating the effects of the virus on individuals as well as on society =
as a whole.

=20

Nancy

=20

=20

=20

=20

=20

=20

On Thu, Apr 30, 2020 at 1:58 PM <dschlosb-g@ns.sympatico.ca =
<mailto:dschlosb-g@ns.sympatico.ca> > wrote:

Another aspect of this video that concerns me is the side effects of the =
virus.  I didn=E2=80=99t listen all the way to the end, but I understand =
there are considerable possibilities of damage to lungs, heart, and =
other organs, which can be long-lasting.  They didn=E2=80=99t seem to be =
taking this into account.

Also, they seemed to be suggesting that our natural immunity will be =
compromised by staying at home for a couple of months; but is that =
really true?=20

I, like many people I know, are at least a tiny bit hopeful that when =
the economy does start up again, people will be more respectful of the =
environment, now that we=E2=80=99ve seen the possibility that our earth =
can recover from human depredation.  Pipe dream?=20

Jane

=20

From: naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca =
<mailto:naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca>  On Behalf Of Rick Whitman
Sent: April 30, 2020 11:57 AM
To: naturens <naturens@chebucto.ns.ca <mailto:naturens@chebucto.ns.ca> >
Subject: Re: [NatureNS] Covid lock down

=20

Dave, I don't think this was helpful. You have at least as much Stats as =
I do. The fraction of the population that has been tested for covid-19 =
in every single one of these states and countries has been hugely biased =
towards those showing symptoms or very known contact. It has been VERY =
difficult for anyone else to get tested.

=20

Therefore, the extrapolation of the positive infection rates in these =
tested populations, to the entire populations of each state or country, =
is absolutely BOGUS.

=20

Therefore, the calculation of death rates from actual known deaths and =
BOGUS estimates of infected populations, is entirely BOGUS and massively =
under-estimates the death rate of those truly infected by covid-19.

=20

I could probably go further but there isn't any point.

=20

On Thu, 30 Apr 2020 at 09:34, David Webster <dwebster@glinx.com =
<mailto:dwebster@glinx.com> > wrote:

Dear All,

     This item on Facebook is I think relevant to our current conditions =

re access to nature.

https://www.bitchute.com/video/WLp53rpJ2B7i/?fbclid=3DIwAR1yRlC5SAPFgLvbl=
stoMSbi6km9cxFBN43ZIuyExf10UVs9gUk2A5yDMgA

Dave, Kentville



--=20

Nancy Robinson

514-605-7186

=20

=20


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<o:idmap v:ext=3D"edit" data=3D"1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=3DEN-CA link=3Dblue =
vlink=3Dpurple><div class=3DWordSection1><p class=3DMsoNormal><span =
lang=3DEN-US style=3D'mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>This might be =
interesting to you statisticians: </span><a =
href=3D"https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-death-projections=
-compare-causes-of-death/?utm_source=3DSTAT+Newsletters&amp;utm_campaign=3D=
64eff25ec7-Daily_Recap&amp;utm_medium=3Demail&amp;utm_term=3D0_8cab1d7961=
-64eff25ec7-150486637">https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-de=
ath-projections-compare-causes-of-death/?utm_source=3DSTAT+Newsletters&am=
p;utm_campaign=3D64eff25ec7-Daily_Recap&amp;utm_medium=3Demail&amp;utm_te=
rm=3D0_8cab1d7961-64eff25ec7-150486637</a><span lang=3DEN-US =
style=3D'mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><span lang=3DEN-US =
style=3D'mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p><div><di=
v style=3D'border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm =
0cm 0cm'><p class=3DMsoNormal><b><span =
lang=3DEN-US>From:</span></b><span lang=3DEN-US> =
naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca <b>On Behalf Of </b>Stephen =
Shaw<br><b>Sent:</b> April 30, 2020 8:48 PM<br><b>To:</b> =
naturens@chebucto.ns.ca<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [NatureNS] Covid lock =
down<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p><p class=3DMsoNormal>Hi Nancy, =
<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=3DMsoNormal>Strange?=E2=80=94 no. &nbsp;You =
must have missed Rick Whitman=E2=80=99s reply to David, and =
David=E2=80=99s response acknowledging that Rick was correct in =
pinpointing the fatal flaw in the banned video talk. &nbsp;The =
=E2=80=9Canalysis=E2=80=9D the guy in the video gives is nonsense, but =
he sounds slick enough -- he presumably is deliberately intending to =
mislead the audience, us: that is, he has a hidden agenda to push. =
&nbsp;The argument the guy gives may sound convincing but it is not, so =
perhaps numbers may help.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal>Say that epidemiologists round up 100 people whom they =
have good reason think probably have (or have had) covid-19, test them =
and find that 99 actually do have covid. &nbsp;On video logic, they'd =
want to say, extrapolating, that 99 percent of the larger population =
must have been infected, a huge number, 39 million folk in California. =
If a relatively low number of people in CA have died (~1200 they said) =
it sounds as if a only tiny fraction of those infected have died, so the =
death rate must be extremely low =E2=80=94 heck, it=E2=80=99s no worse =
than flu. &nbsp;This is a totally biased, bogus and wrong conclusion =
because it=E2=80=99s not based on random sampling. &nbsp; It =
doesn=E2=80=99t matter if they calculate a 12% rate not 99%, it is just =
as phoney an analysis and wrong.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal>If the surveyors instead round up 10,000 people =
randomly from the population (with no prior knowledge of whether they =
are or are not infected), test this larger number and find that the same =
99 people are infected, they will estimate correctly that only about 1 =
percent of the larger population is actually infected, now very small =
proportion (99 out of 10,000 =3D 0.99% =E2=89=88 1%). &nbsp; Since this =
number is way lower than the bogus video estimate while the number of =
dead stays the same, 1200, the actual death rate must be much higher =
than the bogus video estimates claim.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal>To know the true current infection rate would be =
really useful, but needs random sampling and is not going to happen =
widely in present circumstances, if at all. &nbsp; As you saw from the =
local front-line doctor=E2=80=99s touching e-mail here recently, she and =
colleagues are working flat out already, and it is also clear from TV =
reports that medics are pushed to find test and PPE materials both here =
and in USA. &nbsp;If you perform random tests on 10,000 people and find =
that most are not infected, those tests are not useful in the sense that =
they do not help diagnose those patients who actually are infected, and =
are actually harmful in taking time, money and supplies away from =
already overworked heath care personal. &nbsp;Not going to happen in the =
current situation.&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal>It would be useful, though, to have non-bogus =
estimates to see what the current infection rate really is, to gauge =
whether countries are heading upwards towards 80% of the population =
infected as suggested by earlier UK modeling, should no lock-down =
precautions be taken. &nbsp;Or are we now heading to an 80% overall =
infection anyway with a flattened curve, just much more slowly and =
integrated over a much longer time scale? =
&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal>-------------------------------------------------------=
 &nbsp; &nbsp;<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal>On Apr 30, 2020, at 4:56 PM, N Robinson &lt;<a =
href=3D"mailto:nrobbyn@gmail.com">nrobbyn@gmail.com</a>&gt; =
wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote =
style=3D'margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><div><div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal>Thank you, David, for finding this video that was =
banned by YouTube - very strange...<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal>I =
find these doctors very responsible, finally someone putting the gross =
numbers into perspective; i.e. looking at per capita rates and death =
rates compared to other illnesses.&nbsp; I have not heard any news =
reports since the beginning of this pandemic telling us how many people =
die every day of many causes.&nbsp; It is as if without Covid 19, nobody =
dies.&nbsp; The doctors' extrapolations to the wider population should =
be examined more closely.&nbsp; I notice, however, that they mentioned =
increased domestic violence, etc. as a side effect of the shutdown, but =
gave no numbers.&nbsp; Nor did the reporters ask how many, within what =
time frame and how many more than &quot;usual&quot;.&nbsp;&nbsp; =
<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal>My take on the pandemic has been that Mother Earth =
said &quot;Enough is enough&quot; and found a way to shut the whole =
world down.&nbsp; Brilliant!<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal>I =
do hope that this pause in our lives will actually raise awareness of =
the wasteful way we live, increase our sensitivity to the natural world =
and force us to deal with our contribution to climate change.&nbsp; =
These doctors do not address that.&nbsp; They mention vaccines as a =
solution, at least in part, but do not mention anything about people =
improving their lifestyles, especially their diets, which would go a =
long way to mitigating the effects of the virus on individuals as well =
as on society as a whole.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal>Nancy<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div></div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p><div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal>On =
Thu, Apr 30, 2020 at 1:58 PM &lt;<a =
href=3D"mailto:dschlosb-g@ns.sympatico.ca" =
target=3D"_blank">dschlosb-g@ns.sympatico.ca</a>&gt; =
wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote =
style=3D'border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0cm 0cm 0cm =
6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0cm'><div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span =
lang=3DEN-US>Another aspect of this video that concerns me is the side =
effects of the virus.&nbsp; I didn=E2=80=99t listen all the way to the =
end, but I understand there are considerable possibilities of damage to =
lungs, heart, and other organs, which can be long-lasting.&nbsp; They =
didn=E2=80=99t seem to be taking this into =
account.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span =
lang=3DEN-US>Also, they seemed to be suggesting that our natural =
immunity will be compromised by staying at home for a couple of months; =
but is that really true? </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span =
lang=3DEN-US>I, like many people I know, are at least a tiny bit hopeful =
that when the economy does start up again, people will be more =
respectful of the environment, now that we=E2=80=99ve seen the =
possibility that our earth can recover from human depredation.&nbsp; =
Pipe dream? </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span =
lang=3DEN-US>Jane</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><span =
lang=3DEN-US>&nbsp;</span><o:p></o:p></p><div =
style=3D'border:none;border-top:solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm =
0cm 0cm;border-color:currentcolor currentcolor'><p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'><b><span =
lang=3DEN-US>From:</span></b><span lang=3DEN-US> <a =
href=3D"mailto:naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca" =
target=3D"_blank">naturens-owner@chebucto.ns.ca</a> <b>On Behalf Of =
</b>Rick Whitman<br><b>Sent:</b> April 30, 2020 11:57 AM<br><b>To:</b> =
naturens &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:naturens@chebucto.ns.ca" =
target=3D"_blank">naturens@chebucto.ns.ca</a>&gt;<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: =
[NatureNS] Covid lock down</span><o:p></o:p></p></div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>&nbsp;<o:p><=
/o:p></p><div><p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Dave, I =
don't think this was helpful. You have at least as much Stats as I do. =
The fraction of the population that has been tested for covid-19 in =
every single one of these states and countries has been hugely biased =
towards those showing symptoms or very known contact. It has been VERY =
difficult&nbsp;for anyone else to get tested.<o:p></o:p></p><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>&nbsp;<o:p><=
/o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Therefore, =
the extrapolation of the positive infection rates in these tested =
populations, to the entire populations of each state or country, is =
absolutely BOGUS.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>&nbsp;<o:p><=
/o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>Therefore, =
the calculation of death rates from actual known deaths and BOGUS =
estimates of infected populations, is entirely BOGUS and massively =
under-estimates the death rate of those truly infected by =
covid-19.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>&nbsp;<o:p><=
/o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>I could =
probably go further but there isn't any =
point.<o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>&nbsp;<o:p><=
/o:p></p><div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto'>On Thu, 30 =
Apr 2020 at 09:34, David Webster &lt;<a =
href=3D"mailto:dwebster@glinx.com" =
target=3D"_blank">dwebster@glinx.com</a>&gt; =
wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote =
style=3D'border:none;border-left:solid windowtext 1.0pt;padding:0cm 0cm =
0cm =
6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:5=
.0pt;border-color:currentcolor currentcolor currentcolor =
rgb(204,204,204)'><p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt'>Dear =
All,<br><br>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; This item on Facebook is I think =
relevant to our current conditions <br>re access to nature.<br><br><a =
href=3D"https://www.bitchute.com/video/WLp53rpJ2B7i/?fbclid=3DIwAR1yRlC5S=
APFgLvblstoMSbi6km9cxFBN43ZIuyExf10UVs9gUk2A5yDMgA" =
target=3D"_blank">https://www.bitchute.com/video/WLp53rpJ2B7i/?fbclid=3DI=
wAR1yRlC5SAPFgLvblstoMSbi6km9cxFBN43ZIuyExf10UVs9gUk2A5yDMgA</a><br><br>D=
ave, =
Kentville<o:p></o:p></p></blockquote></div></div></div></blockquote></div=
><p class=3DMsoNormal><br clear=3Dall><br>-- =
<o:p></o:p></p><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><div><di=
v><p class=3DMsoNormal>Nancy Robinson<o:p></o:p></p></div></div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'margin-bottom:12.0pt'>514-605-7186<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div></div></div></div></div></di=
v></div></div></div></div></div></div></blockquote></div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div></div></body></html>
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