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This is a message to Helga, David and anyone else who's following this exchange about hurricanes and global warming. 1) Helga, I consider your comments about my "conflict of interest" on this issue to be "a low blow". As a part-time academic I have to make up some of my salary selling my expert opinion. I do things pro-bono (such as my work with Friends of the Island) and I do some work for pay. I do not change my opinion to suit my employers. In the Tatham work, I raised the issue of Global Warming and natural gas with my employers, the consultants at S.E.A. I even wrote sections of an EIA on the subject which raised questions about the effects of natural gas, if it were being used to increase overall fossil fuel consumption. Some of those sections made it into the final draft and some didn't. The point is that I'm paid for my honest opinion and I give it, here or there. 2) About global warmin, La Nina and increased incidences of hurricanes. I do not dispute the connection between the last two, only the connection between the first and the other two. There is active research ongoing looking at the connection between global warming and El nino/la Nina. It isn't even clear whether global warming will increase or decrease the number of el nino or la nina years, or tilt the system more towards one or the other. If the effect is towards more la nina's then we can look at effects on hurricanes, though, with more el ninos it would decrease hurricane frequency, at least in the Atlantic. 3) In the quote you included, the author seems to be inferring a link betwen global warming and increased La Ninas and hurricanes, though they don't say anything about how this is supposed to occur. If you read the UNEP quote, it asserts that global warming is the problem at the start, but then speaks only of La Nina farther down. And the floods in China and Bangladesh have been attributed as much to excess logging in the upper reaches of the rivers in western China more than any other source. I want to make it clear that I support efforts to decrease fossil fuel consumption in the developed world (and in the developing world where possible without causing hardship). The reason for my comments is to make it clear that connecting up a bunch of problems willy nilly does nobody any good. In fact, it harms our ability to raise money to send to rebuild Central America and to educate people here to be far more environmentally responsible. I want to make one last comment about how I make my living. Helga questioned my integrity because I do consulting work for people she considers questionable. I work part-time here in Halifax. My wife is unable to work. When I decide that I need a few extra bucks so our life can be comfortable (she recently had a knee replacement and has a hard time getting around) I don't expect sneering from those that I consider allies in the struggle. I am groosly underpaid here at Dalhousie, as are all the other part-timers. When I can sell my professional opinion without compromising what I'm saying, sometimes I do it, sometimes I don't. But the idea that I change my opinion to suit the whims of those who hire me is profoundly offensive. Anyone who ever takes a class from me, or hires me, knows that I will give them a frank and honest opinion. I realize this message may be long, so I will cut all of Helga's message which is already on sust-mar. OH ________________________________________________________________ Owen Hertzman E-mail: Owen.Hertzman@Dal.Ca Dept. of Oceanography Phone: (902) 494-3683 Dalhousie University FAX: (902) 494-2885 Halifax, NS CANADA, B3H 4J1
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